How many?

patrick66

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I've been around Mopars since I bought my first one in 1972, for a whopping ten bucks...and drove it home. On five cylinders. Ever since that '52 Plymouth, I've wondered how many are actually still out there. They were not very common in 1972, for certain. I think I've seen one in the last two years!

So, I was mulling about cars that are left, of any particular year, make, or body style. As a percentage of production, I'd have to say convertibles outlive coupes, wagons, and sedans in general. In 1966, Chrysler built 514 Imperial convertibles. If you were to peruse Bing or that g--gle thing for 1966 Imperial convertible pics, you'd see perhaps a hundred or so distinct cars. Sure, some have 50 pics of the same car, but going through them slowly, I figure a hundred have photographic existence in that particular venue. That is approximately 19% survival of the 514 1966 cars. And that's pretty good! Convertibles tend to be taken care of better than their metal-roofed kin. Garaged or covered? More than likely! Not driven in inclement weather? Especially if it's a second or third car. So many of the big cars of all the Big Four ended up in demo derbies, or crashed, or simply neglected to the point they were scrapped out or crushed. I don't know of a convertible demo derby anywhere, thankfully!

So, what do you guys think? EDIT: Do you think more ragtops exist of any particular model, as a percentage of total production over other body styles of the same car?

Imperial HRH20.jpg
 
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patrick66

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I guess the question would be - Do you agree with my general assessment of that there being, as a percentage of production, more convertibles remaining of a particular model, over other body styles of the same car.

My above post has been edited to hopefully clarify what I'm asking.
 

69CoronetRT

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I guess the question would be - Do you agree with my general assessment of that there being, as a percentage of production, more convertibles remaining of a particular model, over other body styles of the same car.

My above post has been edited to hopefully clarify what I'm asking.

I don't agree or disagree with your statement as it can't be verified either way. The answer requires finite numbers that don't exist. Responses, by nature, can only be personal anecdotes.
 

patrick66

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You see (or notice) what you drive. I see my wife's Enclave everywhere, and I see black Passats every day, too.

I can say, pretty confidently, I've seen four other '66 Imperial ragtops in the wild in the nearly eight years I've owned this.
 

jrdudeman

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My uncle still has his 1966 Imperial convert he purchased new at SL Savidge in Seattle. Original unrestored car, original paint, engine and drivetrain all original. Tan color, black interior.
 

Carmine

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I've been around Mopars since I bought my first one in 1972, for a whopping ten bucks...and drove it home. On five cylinders. Ever since that '52 Plymouth, I've wondered how many are actually still out there. They were not very common in 1972, for certain. I think I've seen one in the last two years!

So, I was mulling about cars that are left, of any particular year, make, or body style. As a percentage of production, I'd have to say convertibles outlive coupes, wagons, and sedans in general. In 1966, Chrysler built 514 Imperial convertibles. If you were to peruse Bing or that g--gle thing for 1966 Imperial convertible pics, you'd see perhaps a hundred or so distinct cars. Sure, some have 50 pics of the same car, but going through them slowly, I figure a hundred have photographic existence in that particular venue. That is approximately 19% survival of the 514 1966 cars. And that's pretty good! Convertibles tend to be taken care of better than their metal-roofed kin. Garaged or covered? More than likely! Not driven in inclement weather? Especially if it's a second or third car. So many of the big cars of all the Big Four ended up in demo derbies, or crashed, or simply neglected to the point they were scrapped out or crushed. I don't know of a convertible demo derby anywhere, thankfully!

So, what do you guys think? EDIT: Do you think more ragtops exist of any particular model, as a percentage of total production over other body styles of the same car?

View attachment 470420

I think there is merit to this theory, but I also think it can work in reverse... a lot of convertibles that should have been off the road decades ago lived on as pop-riveted party-barges and suffered more abuse once their values bottomed out. Whereas grandma's sedan sat quietly in her garage. I bought and sold/parted out a few convertibles in the early 90s that amazed me they were still in use, worse than any cars I encounter today.
 

amazinblue82

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my $0.02 as a former manufacturer and self-admitted math nerd

somewhere in mid 70's (before I got into the industry) we (GM) stopped building convertibles.

late 80's when i was associated with product offerings (and financial decisions to invest in them or not) I recall rollover safety standards, fuel economy (verts vs. roofed cars of the same model tend to get FAR LESS MPG), etc "conspired " to reduce demand in 70's. the decision was simple as an OEM manufacturer.

still we made a few models as verts, alongside T-tops and other designs that appealed to many consumers right up to today. compared to the go-go 60ls, WAY less were built. people just didnt want them in sufficient numbers to make investments as a company,

that is becuase vs the 1960's and earlier, the "math" to design/build/market verts was not there for manufacturers from mid/late 70s. So. their penetration in the product offerings, as percentage of all models produced, took a "dive". We see that dive, today 50 years later, as relative scarcity (lower supply) of any given model that was OEM vert.

IMHO, you boil all that stuff I just said down, you get to basic supply and demand equation: how many verts are left vs. roofed cars, by model, by region, on and on.

then, IF you cant get reliable data (easier said than done -- so much so it might be insoluable/questionable reliabilty if you did the analysis), you can throw statistical principles at it to TRY to do more than just count the verts remaining, but to make investment decisions as a collector of those vert models vs. the roofed cars.

collector market economics is SO "imperfect" (as to reliability/availability of information) that i defy anyone to untangle all that.

it seems (this was studied to my knowledge as late as 2009 when I left the industry) verts of a particular model, vs roofed cars of that modei, both in otherwise comparable condition, transact for HIGHER prices. That may reflect relative lower "supply" of verts, differentially higher preference for them as second cars (vs primary transportation.

my final opinion - taking a collector market view:
There are fewer verts than roofed cars in existence. I see nothing going forward (to the years beyond my lifetime, should collector markets for ICE verts continue) to reverse that observation. If I were a vert aficionado, I would expect to pay MORE - again as a collector -- for any particular model of vert vs a full-roofed car of that model, assuming comparable condition.
 

SPF Required

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Anecdotally, I have come across more 68 300 convertibles at car shows than hard tops. I own 1 of 2161 verts produced in 68 (0.04%). If memory serves, there were ~35,000 hard tops produced that same year.
 

polara71

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my $0.02 as a former manufacturer and self-admitted math nerd

somewhere in mid 70's (before I got into the industry) we (GM) stopped building convertibles.

late 80's when i was associated with product offerings (and financial decisions to invest in them or not) I recall rollover safety standards, fuel economy (verts vs. roofed cars of the same model tend to get FAR LESS MPG), etc "conspired " to reduce demand in 70's. the decision was simple as an OEM manufacturer.

still we made a few models as verts, alongside T-tops and other designs that appealed to many consumers right up to today. compared to the go-go 60ls, WAY less were built. people just didnt want them in sufficient numbers to make investments as a company,

that is becuase vs the 1960's and earlier, the "math" to design/build/market verts was not there for manufacturers from mid/late 70s. So. their penetration in the product offerings, as percentage of all models produced, took a "dive". We see that dive, today 50 years later, as relative scarcity (lower supply) of any given model that was OEM vert.

IMHO, you boil all that stuff I just said down, you get to basic supply and demand equation: how many verts are left vs. roofed cars, by model, by region, on and on.

then, IF you cant get reliable data (easier said than done -- so much so it might be insoluable/questionable reliabilty if you did the analysis), you can throw statistical principles at it to TRY to do more than just count the verts remaining, but to make investment decisions as a collector of those vert models vs. the roofed cars.

collector market economics is SO "imperfect" (as to reliability/availability of information) that i defy anyone to untangle all that.

it seems (this was studied to my knowledge as late as 2009 when I left the industry) verts of a particular model, vs roofed cars of that modei, both in otherwise comparable condition, transact for HIGHER prices. That may reflect relative lower "supply" of verts, differentially higher preference for them as second cars (vs primary transportation.

my final opinion - taking a collector market view:
There are fewer verts than roofed cars in existence. I see nothing going forward (to the years beyond my lifetime, should collector markets for ICE verts continue) to reverse that observation. If I were a vert aficionado, I would expect to pay MORE - again as a collector -- for any particular model of vert vs a full-roofed car of that model, assuming comparable condition.

E.F. Hutton has spoken :lol:
 

69CoronetRT

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....you can throw statistical principles at it to TRY to do more than just count the verts remaining......

Therein lies the deception and delusion we put ourselves through and perpetuate.

No...no you can't as that would still require guessing on the percentages you use to derive a final number from an unknown starting point.

We don't even know the exact number of cars produced.

How could you ever honestly derive a survivor number when you don't even know the starting point?
Who makes up the percentage?
How do you determine the percentage? Based on what?

People want finite answers even when none exist. They will even make up things and ways do reach that goal.
 

amazinblue82

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Therein lies the deception and delusion we put ourselves through and perpetuate.

No...no you can't as that would still require guessing on the percentages you use to derive a final number from an unknown starting point.

my experience may be different than yours chief -- or exactly the same. I ain't deluded brother. i just see the matter differently (but actually not much) than you do.

I stand by statistical methods and my experience .. to make a decision, in the face of uncertainty, with mathematics applied to economics .. like I have done/been part of teams that did for 40 years.

same techniques that put people on the moon and may yet cure cancer.

Verts trade for more than non-verts, for most models, of comparable condition/other factors. A simple histogram of time-series data would INFER that I am almost certain --but as I said it is IMHO.

I respect your views, and would love to debate methodology with you all day long, but I aint :)
 

amazinblue82

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Ray, there are a few on this board that when they talk, I listen with GREAT respect. You, like EF Hutton, when you talk, I listen. :thumbsup:

check's in the mail for that PSA boss... $25 right? :poke:

seriously, most people here are just trying to contribute/exchange knowledge abound here.

I respect all views .. even the ones i am 180 degrees away from. benefits of a "free country" we have have.

I can "run circles around" a few topics and share info ... most other stuff i am just soaking up topics/learnings about which so many others can "run circles around" .. as you can do and I cannot.

lets talk about some verts now

:thumbsup:
 

69CoronetRT

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my experience may be different than yours chief -- or exactly the same. I ain't deluded brother. i just see the matter differently (but actually not much) than you do.

I stand by statistical methods and my experience .. to make a decision, in the face of uncertainty, with mathematics applied to economics .. like I have done/been part of teams that did for 40 years.
:)

I have no interest in debate either. Your experience certainly must demonstrate one can't twist math that doesn't exist.

Therein lies the continuing delusion that one can derive a 'number of cars left' when the original number is unknown as well as the survival rate or some unsubstantiated percentage. It is dishonest to try and pretend it does.

Humans want finite answer when none exist.
 

amazinblue82

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I have no interest in debate either. Your experience certainly must demonstrate one can't twist math that doesn't exist.

Therein lies the continuing delusion that one can derive a 'number of cars left' when the original number is unknown as well as the survival rate or some unsubstantiated percentage. It is dishonest to try and pretend it does.

Humans want finite answer when none exist.

Geez man .. you tryin to pick a fight? Feels like passive name-callin' here.

Cmon .. lets talk about cars.
 

MrMoparCHP

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I could create a lot of speculation on why there might be more of a particular body style still around, then at the same time I could reverse that and could create a lot of speculation on why that same body style has vanished. I'm not even going to get into the debate other than to say one can argue either way.

I might say I see more convertibles than sedans but someone somewhere else may say they see more sedans than convertibles.

This is definitely one where data wins.


Alan
 

69CoronetRT

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Geez man .. you tryin to pick a fight? Feels like passive name-callin' here.

Cmon .. lets talk about cars.

Not at all.

I've been around long enough on enough boards and see the same question pop up all they time. It's a legitimate question based on curiosity.

What I get frustrated with is people trying all sorts of voodoo math and trying to rationalize and justify their answers instead of being honest. The numbers crunching research guys I hang around with in the hobby know the perils off trying to derive answers to questions as the data changes constently because we see it. New cars and combinations are added all of the time. New factory info surfaces.

I've tracked 69 Coronet R/T convertibles for 16+ years. Ten years ago, I could have told you about X number of cars I had found. Five years ago, I could have given you a different number. Two new cars have shown up in the last 60 days changing what I would have told you three months ago. (FWFW...I now have 101 on file about 35-40 are even roadworthy). This is only one persons point of reference. There is no one source for an answer.

The numbers change as time goes on. Meaning, you cannot estimate at any one point in time the number of cars that exist in any condition. You cannot derive a number of cars that exist mathematically. The question is finite and no finite answer exists.

I'm just answering the original question honestly, which is what I presume the poster wanted.
 
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