Time to buy a classic car?

[Joseph James]

This doesn’t effect my C body, but I thought it was an interesting read.

With an economic depression unfolding in the second quarter, the classic car market could see downward pressure. Understanding how deep a correction would be is anyone's guess at the moment, but what is evident is that a record number of Americans were just laid off and will need to sell assets to build cash. Some of those assets include, as this piece is centered around, classic cars, as well as art, wine, etc...

While more than three-quarters of the index's component cars recorded no change at all, another large drop for the 1970 Hemi Cuda convertible (among the most valuable muscle cars of all) and a 4 percent decrease for the 1964 Impala SS were more than enough to pull the overall score down," Newton said.

"Five Blue Chip component cars fell more than 10 percent since September 2019, including the Aston Martin DB5, the Ferrari 275 GTB/4, the Jaguar D-Type, the Plymouth Hemi Cuda convertible, and the 1973 Porsche 911 Carrera RS. The Cuda excluded, most of these cars have historically seen strong interest among European buyers, and many of those buyers are hesitating due to unfavorable currency exchange rates and other macro-economic concerns," said Hagerty valuation editor Brian Rabold.

Will Coronavirus Wreck The Classic Car Market?

 

[mopar440]

I've noticed more good driver's in the low twenty's instead of low 30s, but who knows

 

[CBODY67]

No doubt, there can be a "bubble" in the collector car market, but I'm not sure we're there, yet. NOT to say that it's not going to happen at some point in the near future.

I did a search of the inventory of two nation-wide consignment sales website a few nights ago. Just to see what was there and at what price. Although they are operating online and by appointment, I didn't see any significant price reductions. Many of the cars in the $10K range had been marked "SOLD", though. Some nicer cars, too. But not "heavy duty" cars with many modifications type of cars, either.

Usually, when the collector car market sees its main growth has been at times when bank interest rates were the lowest. Making certain vehicles a better investment.

What we're probably going to see will be people who have suddenly found themselves very poorly capitalized and needing "quick money" from things that can be easily sold . . . for cash. So, we're probably going to see some owners who felt they could afford a collector car suddenly need to do something else. The people "with money" will continue as they are. But as sales might slow at the consignment places, THEN you might see some high-priced custom builds become vary reasonably-priced, if that's what might be sought. Or some nice, original cars do the same. It will become a buyer's market, but not quite just yet. Perhaps by the end of summer, with most of the normal car show events having been cancelled (all dressed up and no where to go, so "sell it"?)

Enjoy!
CBODY67

 

[gyknot]

My guess is the high end collectors with big budget cars will just sit on them as they won't be in any "bind".
The cars that will probably come available will be projects or driver quality from folks who got into a hard spot and need cash. Those might start showing up at better prices (for the buyer) as this continues.
As for a permanent drop in value, its too hard to tell just yet.
My opinion is this will be a short term correction that will come back in a year or two. The only thing that might totally ruin the market will be too much government intervention in the free market system. If that happens the value of cars will probably be of little concern in the big picture.
It will just suck since it didn't need to happen.

 

[mopar440]

If the new "cash for clunkers 2" happens, that's gonna be sad unless they change some stuff

 

[Carmine]

If the new "cash for clunkers 2" happens, that's gonna be sad unless they change some stuff

Even the last one excluded over 25 years. The (stupid) goal is getting stuff off the road that's actually racking up serious mileage.

What will determine how hard this hits will be how people respond to things reopening. The more we learn this was a waste of time, I believe the better the response will be. Personally I've pretty much gone about life as normally as possible, with lots of scary anti-social distancing (read that as going to specialty stores that aren't observing any of this). I've not been alone. So if these people respond like me, it will likely just be the restaurant and hospitality workers getting destroyed... sadly.

 

[odcics2]

Even the last one excluded over 25 years. The (stupid) goal is getting stuff off the road that's actually racking up serious mileage.

What will determine how hard this hits will be how people respond to things reopening. The more we learn this was a waste of time, I believe the better the response will be. Personally I've pretty much gone about life as normally as possible, with lots of scary anti-social distancing (read that as going to specialty stores that aren't observing any of this). I've not been alone. So if these people respond like me, it will likely just be the restaurant and hospitality workers getting destroyed... sadly.

Any idea when CTC will reopen, especially the first floor, where the work gets done?

 

[Davea Lux]

We are still very early in the process of market repricing for for covid-19. The economic damage from this crisis will be much longer lasting than the health consequences. There are many people, especially younger workers, who are out of work for the first time in their lives. Folks with young families and a mortgage or rent payment due are getting the hell scared out of them and for good reason. This will have a long lasting impact on their confidence going forward. I would not be a buyer in this market. We are also starting to see the early signs of a collapse in the real estate market, especially commercial real estate. That will cause a severe tightening of credit and loan standards and further contract the economy. In short, it will probably get worse before it get better. Keep your powder dry, I suspect there will be much lower pricing for many collector cars going forward.

Dave

 

[Carmine]

Any idea when CTC will reopen, especially the first floor, where the work gets done?

I got an automated call last Sunday asking to confirm my address to receive "back to work" instruction (plus I text with some of the higher up engineers). We all thought the 4th was the magic date, then the Governor came out with the 15th, which I'd gladly ignore, but I've yet to hear anything. BTW, are you on the current/former Chrysler employee FB group?

 

[mopar440]

Even the last one excluded over 25 years. The (stupid) goal is getting stuff off the road that's actually racking up serious mileage.

What will determine how hard this hits will be how people respond to things reopening. The more we learn this was a waste of time, I believe the better the response will be. Personally I've pretty much gone about life as normally as possible, with lots of scary anti-social distancing (read that as going to specialty stores that aren't observing any of this). I've not been alone. So if these people respond like me, it will likely just be the restaurant and hospitality workers getting destroyed... sadly.

It excluded 25 years plus? Good, that's actually the first time I heard that

 

[odcics2]

It excluded 25 years plus? Good, that's actually the first time I heard that

The last time, my 1997 Caravan was too old!!!!!

 

[bluefury361]

"Five Blue Chip component cars fell more than 10 percent since September 2019, including the Aston Martin DB5, the Ferrari 275 GTB/4, the Jaguar D-type.

These are not main stream collector cars but should be considered high end vehicles, which, will not be effected as much as our Fury's, Pontiac's, Mustang's etc.
These are the cars which will be most effected and one can watch for some pretty good bargains in the near future.

 

[Carmine]

It excluded 25 years plus? Good, that's actually the first time I heard that

Some of the first ones in California did not. That's probably what you're thinking of... Those were actually privately funded by my Unocal (or some other oil company). The deal being that for every dollar spent, they offset $1 + X spending on pollution controls at a refinery. Pretty much a scam in bed with CA politicians. But this was decades ago. The actual Federal program from 2008 was slightly less of a scam.

 

[Davea Lux]

Some of the first ones in California did not. That's probably what you're thinking of... Those were actually privately funded by my Unocal (or some other oil company). The deal being that for every dollar spent, they offset $1 + X spending on pollution controls at a refinery. Pretty much a scam in bed with CA politicians. But this was decades ago. The actual Federal program from 2008 was slightly less of a scam.

It was more to bail out the auto industry and help them sell new cars. Screwed up the used car market something awful by taking out a lot of still usable cars and crushing them.

Dave

 

[The Goose]

It could be worse than we thought. They just said the Pebble Beach Show was axed for this year. AND it’s held in August Outside for Pete’s sake. No word on the races yet but the idiots are calling for a no spectator race. If that’s the case then just cancel it too.

I for one was just getting ready to sell (dump) my ‘71 Torino and give the money to my kid for school. I will now hold onto it for at least another year. I don’t need to sell it and I’m certainly not going to give it away. The prices seem to have tanked out here. I’m just going to wait & see...

 

[polara71]

"Five Blue Chip component cars fell more than 10 percent since September 2019, including the Aston Martin DB5, the Ferrari 275 GTB/4, the Jaguar D-type.

These are not main stream collector cars but should be considered high end vehicles, which, will not be effected as much as our Fury's, Pontiac's, Mustang's etc.
These are the cars which will be most effected and one can watch for some pretty good bargains in the near future.

I believe the opposite. Our low end cars have never been effected by recessions. Sure a few may be found on the cheap but over the last 20 plus years our Cs have held value or gone up. Its the higher dollar cars that seem to tumble.

Only my observation...

 

[Mike66Chryslers]

I believe the opposite. Our low end cars have never been effected by recessions. Sure a few may be found on the cheap but over the last 20 plus years our Cs have held value or gone up. Its the higher dollar cars that seem to tumble.

Only my observation...

I was looking for a '66 Chrysler convertible for almost a year within a certain budget. Wound-up with a Newport with bench seat that needed mechanical work. Then the Great Recession happened and near the end of that I could've picked up a nice 300 with buckets for the same price. Saw more than one come available that would've been in my original budget.

 

[CBODY67]

The prior cash-for-clunker deals were looking for "modern" cars that were "wore out" and needed work, but some nice '80s cars came into the mix, unfortunately. And the '90s Chrysler mnivans that still had plenty of use left in them, with interiors that needed a steam cleaning to look almost new again.

The orientation to "help the OEMs", but also to get older "daily" vehicles out of the total vehicle fleet. Which would mean generally better fuel economy and better exhaust emissions.

In TX, there are still "repair assistance" grants to fix older vehicles. Used to be some income requirements for who could participate, too. Bad thing is that for people at the max income level to participate, they probably could not afford a new car payment and pay their existing bills.

Lots of side issues,
CBODY67