The driverless future

[tbm3fan]

Being where my office, where a lot of tech people live, I hear many things over the years regarding tech. Lots of stuff before it ever gets out to the public. Comments from people at Apple, Oracle, Intel, Google, Uber,and Chevron to name a few. We talk behind closed doors. I ask questions and I get straight answers since they know I don't divulge much. Just recently I have seen Google take out leases on some old aircraft hangers at the former Alameda Naval Air Station. I pass by the a large parking lot, by the USS Hornet, where Google has fenced off a large part of the lot with some sort of antenna contraption in the middle and full time security.

So we all know about self-driving cars and how the research has picked up steam recently. I do. The number 10 years has been thrown out as to when we will see significant change yet some change will happen in 5 years.

Needless to say this is going to upend much just like the first horseless carriage did to horses. From car sales, as I am already seeing less interest in cars by those under 35. To related car industries like auto body shops with no accidents to repair. To the Insurance industry. Then to government finances.

Whatcha thinking?

5 Ways Self-Driving Cars Will Upend the Economy

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/05/technology/gm-invests-in-lyft.html

 

[Dobalovr]

Autonomous driving vehicles are closer than many people think. Current production vehicles having Forward Collision Warning Advanced Cruise Control and Lane Departure systems render these cars vitually self driving now. You could literally set these features and go sit in the back and watch it drive. Beware they have your guns now they want your cars.

 

[commando1]

The immensity of

is beyond what most people comprehend.
If they chose to, they could become the government of this (or of any of many) nation(s).

Then can now influence publc opinion, perception, and/or outcome on literally anything.

 

[cantflip]

Autonomous driving vehicles are closer than many people think. Current production vehicles having Forward Collision Warning Advanced Cruise Control and Lane Departure systems render these cars vitually self driving now. You could literally set these features and go sit in the back and watch it drive. Beware they have your guns now they want your cars.

I have been saying for years that we will not be allowed to drive ourselves at some point in the future. I'm not sure when that some point will be. Airbags were on the market as an option for about a decade before they became mandatory. At some point after that they will decide you cant drive yourself as safely as the car can... then it will become a liability issue if your in an accident... it will spiral down from there.

 

[Wollfen]

Total agreement, we will see the demise of human driven vehicles in 20 years or so i should think. At least in the big cities at first where most traffic is.

 

[furyus 67]

Lazy lazy lazy *** ****'s! " I don't want to drive there...I want to be taken." If it wasn't for humananities natural ability to be lazy we wouldn't have half of the conveniences we do. This is were we are headed!

 

[70bigblockdodge]

I can't believe everyone is missing the biggest question. If I tie one on at the bar can I have my car drive me home with no consequences?

 

[Stormer]

Whose guns do they have?

BTW, Tesla is kicking google's as on this.

 

[Wollfen]

I can't believe everyone is missing the biggest question. If I tie one on at the bar can I have my car drive me home with no consequences?

I would say yes.

 

[WorkerBee]

This is just another nail in the coffin for the classic car. Environmentalism was the first one.

 

[tbm3fan]

I can't believe everyone is missing the biggest question. If I tie one on at the bar can I have my car drive me home with no consequences?

Well, yes.

The other advantage is no more crazy drivers on the road. No more brake checking and then zoom across three lanes to exit. No more dealing with drivers who are wandering while texting. Traffic moving faster without everyone playing lane jockey.

 

[Dobalovr]

The other advantage is no more crazy drivers on the road. No more brake checking and then zoom across three lanes to exit. No more dealing with drivers who are wandering while texting. Traffic moving faster without everyone playing lane jockey.

With all the free time we will have because the gov'mint has protected us from our selves while driving in our googlemobiles eating our Genetically Modified MCbreakfast watching Netflix and texting our bosses that we are working from home today we might be able to cure cancer! BTW Toyota already has a car that sucks the thrill of driving out of mankind...it's called a Camry. No offense Camry owners...

 

[GregG48203]

I believe that many people will insist on driving where and when they want. This will insure a level of uncertainty to the driving experience. There may also be class distinctions: only those that can afford it may drive as they will.

 

[furyus 67]

Well, yes.

The other advantage is no more crazy drivers on the road. No more brake checking and then zoom across three lanes to exit. No more dealing with drivers who are wandering while texting. Traffic moving faster without everyone playing lane jockey.

True.....but we also loose a another piece of our independence and by that I don't mean FREEEDOM...ehm.....,I mean a another step further from the natural world. For 15/16ths of our existence the food chain kept us sharp and self reliant , then we started sitting on soft things. Then we put wheels on soft things and had horses yank us around. After that engines and the automobile! Now the
auto-automobile....sounds like siting on soft things being yank around again.....

 

[tbm3fan]

Well I can say driving the freeways in the Bay Area is a nightmare in the mornings and evenings. There is so much stupidity on the roads in the morning which I really can't explain to those who don't live here. We now have 24 hours of traffic reports as no time is quiet anymore. It is very hard to even get my cars out for an enjoyable ride since I have to be on my toes at all times. Takes the fun out of things. Like the stock market I would love predictability on the roads. Yet right now things can be like a cat fight out here with all those untrained people behind those wheels.

When someone asked me a few weeks ago what I would really like to happen my answer was either a good recession or a good earthquake to chase at least 500,000 out of the region. I wasn't joking.

 

[cantflip]

Whose guns do they have?

BTW, Tesla is kicking google's as on this.

I am still in "wait and see" where they are concerned. While I understand it is a monumental task to start and keep alive a new car manufacturer, they dont look so good to me as an employer. They have a history of hiring based on projects... work the heck out of staff and then letting them go afterwards. I still think a lot of what they do is cool, But I have no desire to be a part of that atmosphere.

 

[70bigblockdodge]

BTW Toyota already has a car that sucks the thrill of driving out of mankind...it's called a Camry.

Those are personalityless cars, they should just paint them all white with black lettering like the old generic products from years ago.

 

[amazinblue82]

I think they're coming. In widespread use, assuming I live another 30 years, no. Will I be able to ride in one within 30 years, of course because I can do that today and will on my next trip to San Jose.

But ride in one I OWN ... never gonna happen (unless forced by law). I still wanna drive!

The contrarians have a view of a VERY LONG adoption curve, absent HUGE demographic/economic/technology disruptions, making for a long, hard slog for fully autonomous driving as others have pointed out in this thread.

Not a scholarly piece (a little tongue in cheek) of a contrarian's five main points against autonomy. http://oppositelock.kinja.com/why-well-never-have-driverless-cars-1356917969

1. Trust Issues

No one will trust autonomous cars.

2. Hacking Fears

Especially when a company like Tesla can remotely update the software on their cars.

3. Infrastructure and Regulation

Roads and other forms of infrastructure would have to be improved to accommodate autonomous cars. And that won’t happen, for reasons that ... amounts to political suicide ... raising taxes.

4. Liability Issues

Murphy's Law will apply to anything and everything.

5. We as humans, will always think we're better than the machine...and we are.

This last one is especially true of car enthusiasts. Greg Tracy ...did the Hot Wheels Double Loop Dare, a drone car was used to test whether a car would actually make the loop. That testing attempt was unsuccessful, with the drone car having dropped down directly from the top of the loop. Yet two human drivers were able to drive a loop.

The scholarly pieces (with time/motion studies, statistical analysis- tons out there for you to study if interested) point out:

A. Chaos (random events) can't yet be managed by machine better than by humans.

B. Pedestrians (bikes, motorcycles, joggers, walkers) - inattention, slips and falls..these things will NOT be controlled by "software", so you're back to random events that cannot yet or ever(?) be satisfactorily managed.

C. Commercial Vehicles (F=ma) which gets to speed limits, which studies have shown lead to MORE traffic congestion with autonomous fleets (see D below).

D. Occupant comfort - how is the autonomous vehicle programmed to respond conditions it will encounter..how fast does it stop, can it execute an evasive maneuver without dumping hot coffee in your lap, etc). Studies show CURRENT programming of automous vehicles is biased toward slow, smooth, gradual, easy movements -- no slamming on brakes, no speeding, no leaving the lane, etc. -- leading to MORE congestion UNTIL (when?) all vehicles are talking to EVERY other vehicle. So back to A and B above...what are they gonna do about those long term?

 

[amazinblue82]

Just for curiosity's sake...an autonomous motorcycle. Still has his training wheels, but you get the picture.

Yamaha Reveals Autonomous Motorcycle-Riding Humanoid Robot

 

[72Fury]

I can't believe everyone is missing the biggest question. If I tie one on at the bar can I have my car drive me home with no consequences?

I already thought about that. I'm about the same age as you. If this stuff can hold off for another

I can't believe everyone is missing the biggest question. If I tie one on at the bar can I have my car drive me home with no consequences?

Don't be silly. Your new car, called the iTurd, made from recycled baby diapers, available in only one color like the Model T, and financed with 144 easy payments will send out a text alert to the local constables. While you doze off, your driverless chariot will pull up to the police station & hit the horn, where you will be greeted & your picture posted up on facebook, under new arrivals.